| Ticker | Shares | Avg Cost | Price | Mkt Value | ST P&L | LT P&L | Total P&L | Lots |
|---|
| Layer | Value | Weight | Δ $ | Δ % | Next Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 Structural Ballast | $82,620 | 36.5% | $319 | +0.39% | — |
| L2 Cash-Flow Engines | $37,661 | 16.6% | $535 | +1.44% | — |
| L3 Compounders | $66,495 | 29.4% | $1,158 | +1.77% | — |
| L4 Convexity | $12,903 | 5.7% | $215 | +1.70% | — |
| L5 Shock Absorbers | $26,788 | 11.8% | $31 | +0.11% | — |
| Ticker | Shares | Avg Cost | Price | Value | Total Gain | Daily Δ | Weight | Next Earnings | Layer | Tax Lots | Thesis | Macro ⓘ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layer 1: L1 Structural BallastMacro Risk Exposure 72 | ||||||||||||
| BRK-Bⓘ | 100.00 | $476.60 | $573.68 | $57,368 | +20.37% | +0.49% | 25.3% | — | L1 | 72 | ||
Investment Thesis — BRK-B 53/100evaluated 19h ago ⚠ CRITICAL PILLAR VIOLATED — review thesis immediately ●Capital Allocation Discipline ⚑30.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=5570000000.00[VIOLATED]; net_margin=21.77[HEALTHY] ●Insurance Float & Underwriting Profitability30.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=28.33[HEALTHY] ●Balance Sheet Fortress25.0%HEALTHY cash=40609000000.00[HEALTHY] ●Per-Share Earnings Compounding15.0%WARNING eps_diluted=11.91[WARNING] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — BRK-B · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 While Berkshire holds massive fixed-income portfolios vulnerable to rising yields, its core insurance float and diverse operating subsidiaries with floating-rate assets provide significant natural hedging, resulting in net neutral-to-positive sensitivity. Inflation Hedge7/10 Berkshire's diversified operating businesses (rail, utilities, energy, retail) possess strong pricing power and own real assets, allowing them to pass on inflationary costs, while its large cash and short-duration bond holdings preserve purchasing power better than long-duration debt. Dollar Sensitivity4/10 As a predominantly US-centric conglomerate with most revenue generated domestically, it is less exposed to currency translation risks than multinationals, though its significant international equity holdings (e.g., Apple, Bank of America) introduce moderate foreign currency exposure. Geopolitical Risk3/10 Berkshire's heavy concentration in US domestic industries (rail, insurance, utilities) insulates it from direct trade war tariffs and supply chain disruptions compared to global tech or manufacturing firms, though its global investment portfolio carries indirect geopolitical risk. Summary: Berkshire's unique structure as a diversified holding company with insurance float and real assets provides a robust, balanced macro profile that is resilient to rate hikes and inflation while maintaining moderate exposure to dollar strength and geopolitical events. | ||||||||||||
| VTSAXⓘ | 58.98 | $145.04 | $176.16 | $10,390 | +21.46% | +0.39% | 4.6% | — | L1 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| VFIAXⓘ | 13.80 | $536.20 | $681.20 | $9,399 | +27.04% | +0.32% | 4.2% | — | L1 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| VTMGXⓘ | 250.75 | $19.94 | $21.79 | $5,464 | +9.28% | -0.55% | 2.4% | — | L1 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| Layer 2: L2 Cash-Flow EnginesMacro Risk Exposure 42 | ||||||||||||
| SCHDⓘ | 929.00 | $29.55 | $35.74 | $33,198 | +20.94% | +1.61% | 14.7% | — | L2 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| BPⓘ | 100.00 | $45.10 | $44.63 | $4,463 | -1.04% | +0.22% | 2.0% | — | L2 | 42 | ||
Investment Thesis — BP 40/100evaluated 19h ago ⚠ CRITICAL PILLAR VIOLATED — review thesis immediately ●Dividend Sustainability & FCF Coverage ⚑40.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=7771000000.00[VIOLATED]; debt_to_equity=1.24[VIOLATED] ●Operational Margin Resilience30.0%WARNING operating_margin=13.07[WARNING] ●Capital Allocation Discipline30.0%HEALTHY net_debt=35525000000.00[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — BP · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity6/10 BP's high net debt of $35.5B creates significant interest expense sensitivity to rising yields, though its capital-intensive energy model partially offsets this compared to pure financials. Inflation Hedge8/10 As an integrated energy major, BP benefits from rising commodity prices and has strong pricing power, making it a natural hedge against sustained inflation above 3%. Dollar Sensitivity7/10 BP's significant international revenue exposure and USD-denominated debt mean a strengthening US dollar negatively impacts reported earnings and increases debt servicing costs, as evidenced by its negative USD beta. Geopolitical Risk9/10 BP operates globally with complex supply chains and upstream assets in politically sensitive regions, making it highly vulnerable to trade disruptions, sanctions, and geopolitical instability. Summary: BP exhibits high structural exposure to inflation and geopolitical risks, moderate-to-high sensitivity to interest rates due to leverage, and significant headwinds from a strengthening US dollar. | ||||||||||||
| Layer 3: L3 CompoundersMacro Risk Exposure 62 | ||||||||||||
| GRMNⓘ | 46.46 | $226.65 | $291.89 | $13,560 | +28.78% | +2.21% | 6.0% | — | L3 | 47▼3 | ||
Investment Thesis — GRMN 75/100evaluated 20h ago ●Profitability & Margin Integrity ⚑35.0%STRONG gross_margin=62.41[HEALTHY]; operating_margin=30.44[HEALTHY] ●Cash Generation Efficiency25.0%WARNING fcf_margin=13.64[WARNING] ●Top-Line Expansion25.0%HEALTHY revenue_growth_yoy=11.44[HEALTHY] ●Balance Sheet Fortitude15.0%HEALTHY net_debt=-2156278000.00[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — GRMN · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 As a hardware manufacturer with negative net debt, Garmin is largely insulated from rising interest rates, though its valuation may face slight pressure from higher discount rates compared to cash-rich peers. Inflation Hedge4/10▼1 Garmin possesses moderate pricing power within its niche markets (marine, aviation, outdoor), but its reliance on complex global supply chains for components limits its ability to fully pass through sustained inflationary costs. Dollar Sensitivity7/10 With significant international revenue exposure, a strengthening US dollar creates a headwind by reducing the translated value of foreign sales and making Garmin's products more expensive for overseas buyers. Geopolitical Risk6/10 Garmin's complex global supply chain, particularly its dependence on Asian manufacturing for electronics and components, exposes it to trade tensions, tariffs, and potential supply chain disruptions. Summary: Garmin exhibits moderate macro sensitivity driven primarily by currency translation risks and supply chain geopolitical exposure, while remaining resilient to interest rate shocks due to its strong balance sheet. | ||||||||||||
| WMTⓘ | 100.56 | $118.26 | $125.33 | $12,603 | +5.98% | -0.15% | 5.6% | — | L3 | 69 | ||
Investment Thesis — WMT 57/100evaluated 19h ago ●Operating Leverage & Margin Expansion ⚑45.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=4.99[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Generation33.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=7475000000.00[VIOLATED] ●Revenue Growth & Share Gains22.0%HEALTHY revenue_growth_yoy=5.94[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — WMT · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10▲1 WMT's low market beta and defensive consumer staples business model provide insulation against rising rates, though its significant net debt load creates moderate interest expense sensitivity. Inflation Hedge7/10 As a dominant retailer with strong pricing power and essential goods, WMT can pass through inflationary costs to consumers, protecting margins better than non-essential discretionary sectors. Dollar Sensitivity2/10▼1 WMT's revenue is predominantly domestic (US-centric), making it largely immune to foreign exchange headwinds from a strengthening US dollar compared to multinational exporters. Geopolitical Risk6/10 WMT relies heavily on global supply chains, particularly for imported goods from Asia, making it vulnerable to trade wars, tariffs, and logistics disruptions. Summary: WMT exhibits low macro sensitivity to rates and currency but faces moderate inflation pass-through benefits and significant geopolitical supply chain risks. | ||||||||||||
| EWⓘ | 100.00 | $85.29 | $104.96 | $10,496 | +23.06% | +2.76% | 4.6% | — | L3 | 78 | ||
Investment Thesis — EW 47/100evaluated 20h ago ●Structural Heart Growth & TAVR Dominance ⚑40.0%HEALTHY revenue_growth_yoy=13.63[HEALTHY] ●Margin Integrity & Cash Generation30.0%WARNING gross_margin=77.46[HEALTHY]; free_cash_flow=585000000.00[WARNING] ●R&D Productivity & TMTT Scaling30.0%VIOLATED eps_diluted=0.42[VIOLATED] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — EW · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity2/10 Elevance Health's net cash position and stable healthcare cash flows provide significant insulation against rising interest rates, unlike leveraged or long-duration assets. Inflation Hedge6/10 As a managed care organization with high gross margins, it possesses strong pricing power to pass through medical cost inflation, though regulatory constraints may limit full pass-through. Dollar Sensitivity3/10 The company's revenue is predominantly domestic and denominated in USD, minimizing the translation risk typically associated with a strengthening US dollar. Geopolitical Risk2/10 Its business model relies on US-based insurance contracts and domestic provider networks, making it largely immune to international trade wars or geopolitical supply chain disruptions. Summary: Elevance Health exhibits low structural macro sensitivity due to its domestic focus, net cash balance, and resilient healthcare business model. | ||||||||||||
| NFLXⓘ | 100.00 | $82.26 | $63.47 | $6,347 | -22.83% | +0.10% | 2.8% | — | L3 | 47 | ||
Investment Thesis — NFLX 80/100evaluated 20h ago ●Content Margin Quality ⚑60.0%HEALTHY gross_profit=6522973000.00[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — NFLX · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity7/10 As a long-duration growth asset with significant net debt and high valuation multiples, NFLX's intrinsic value is heavily discounted by rising interest rates, despite its strong free cash flow generation. Inflation Hedge6/10 NFLX possesses strong pricing power to raise subscription fees in response to inflation, but its content costs are sticky and rising, limiting pure inflation pass-through compared to commodity producers. Dollar Sensitivity3/10 While NFLX generates substantial international revenue, its global content library and localized pricing strategies mitigate the negative impact of a strengthening US dollar on reported earnings. Geopolitical Risk8/10 NFLX faces high geopolitical risk due to its reliance on international content licensing, varying global censorship laws, and potential regulatory actions or bans in key markets like China and Russia. Summary: NFLX exhibits high sensitivity to interest rates and geopolitical fragmentation, with moderate inflation hedging capabilities derived from its pricing power but constrained by rising content costs. | ||||||||||||
| STZⓘ | 34.93 | $150.43 | $145.59 | $5,086 | -3.22% | +2.55% | 2.2% | — | L3 | 78▲3 | ||
Investment Thesis — STZ 59/100evaluated 20h ago ●Beer Margin Integrity ⚑35.0%HEALTHY gross_margin=54.29[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Generation30.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=484600000.00[VIOLATED] ●Operating Leverage25.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=35.50[HEALTHY] ●Debt Management10.0%HEALTHY debt_to_equity=1.28[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — STZ · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 As a consumer defensive staple with stable cash flows, STZ is less sensitive to rate hikes than growth or real estate sectors, though its high net debt of $10.4B creates some interest expense drag. Inflation Hedge7/10 STZ possesses strong pricing power within the consumer defensive sector, allowing it to pass through input cost increases to consumers, thereby protecting margins during sustained inflation. Dollar Sensitivity2/10▼2 With a primarily domestic US revenue base and limited exposure to foreign currency fluctuations, STZ is largely immune to the negative impacts of a strengthening US dollar. Geopolitical Risk3/10▲1 STZ's supply chain is relatively insulated from major geopolitical disruptions compared to tech or manufacturing, as alcohol production relies on stable, domestic agricultural inputs. Summary: STZ exhibits low macro sensitivity due to its defensive business model and domestic focus, offering resilience against rate hikes and dollar strength while maintaining moderate inflation protection through pricing power. | ||||||||||||
| SNAⓘ | 10.13 | $350.02 | $377.06 | $3,818 | +7.72% | +2.68% | 1.7% | — | L3 | 56 | ||
Investment Thesis — SNA 74/100evaluated 20h ago ●Pricing Power & Margin Integrity ⚑30.0%HEALTHY gross_margin=52.64[HEALTHY] ●Core Operating Efficiency25.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=25.20[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Generation25.0%HEALTHY fcf_margin=18.61[HEALTHY] ●Earnings Growth vs Revenue20.0%Not evaluated eps_growth_yoy=N/A[UNKNOWN] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — SNA · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 SNA's net cash position and industrial business model provide insulation against rising rates, as higher borrowing costs on its debt are negligible compared to its cash holdings, though its capital-intensive nature prevents it from being fully immune. Inflation Hedge6/10 As a manufacturer of industrial automation components, SNA possesses moderate pricing power to pass through input cost increases, but its exposure to raw material volatility and customer capital expenditure cycles limits its ability to fully hedge against sustained inflation. Dollar Sensitivity7/10 SNA generates a significant portion of its revenue internationally, meaning a strengthening US dollar directly erodes the value of its foreign earnings when translated back to reporting currency, creating high structural sensitivity to USD strength. Geopolitical Risk5/10 SNA's global supply chain and international revenue base expose it to moderate geopolitical risks, including potential trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions, though its diversified industrial customer base offers some mitigation compared to pure-play tech or defense firms. Summary: SNA exhibits high sensitivity to currency fluctuations due to its international revenue mix, while its net cash position and industrial pricing power provide moderate resilience against interest rate and inflation shocks. | ||||||||||||
| FSPTXⓘ | 72.55 | $41.35 | $50.93 | $3,695 | +23.17% | +0.93% | 1.6% | — | L3 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| ITWⓘ | 12.15 | $267.87 | $289.05 | $3,512 | +7.91% | +2.88% | 1.6% | — | L3 | 61▼3 | ||
Investment Thesis — ITW 50/100evaluated 20h ago ●Operating Margin Expansion ⚑35.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=26.67[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Conversion30.0%WARNING fcf_margin=14.67[WARNING] ●EPS Growth Quality25.0%VIOLATED eps_diluted=2.84[VIOLATED] ●Revenue Stability10.0%HEALTHY revenue_growth_yoy=6.12[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — ITW · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 ITW's moderate leverage and industrial business model face headwinds from higher borrowing costs, but its strong free cash flow generation and pricing power mitigate the impact compared to highly leveraged peers. Inflation Hedge7/10 As a diversified industrial manufacturer with significant pricing power and a history of margin expansion, ITW can effectively pass through input cost increases to customers, providing strong protection against sustained inflation. Dollar Sensitivity6/10 With approximately 50% of revenue generated internationally, a strengthening US dollar creates translation headwinds and reduces the competitiveness of US-made exports, though its global footprint offers some natural hedging. Geopolitical Risk5/10▲1 ITW's global supply chain and significant international revenue exposure make it vulnerable to trade tensions and tariffs, yet its diversified end markets and focus on essential industrial components reduce reliance on any single geopolitical region. Summary: ITW exhibits moderate structural macro sensitivity, characterized by strong inflation pass-through capabilities but notable exposure to currency fluctuations and global trade dynamics. | ||||||||||||
| DSGXⓘ | 34.00 | $74.40 | $94.21 | $3,203 | +26.62% | +0.23% | 1.4% | — | L3 | 72 | ||
Investment Thesis — DSGX 71/100evaluated 19h ago ●Organic Revenue Expansion ⚑35.0%WARNING revenue_growth_yoy=11.84[WARNING] ●Operating Leverage & Cash Generation35.0%STRONG fcf_margin=39.42[HEALTHY]; operating_margin=33.18[HEALTHY] ●Financial Discipline & Solvency30.0%HEALTHY debt_to_equity=0.00[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — DSGX · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity2/10 As a software company with negative net debt (net cash position) and high gross margins, DSGX is largely immune to rising rates and may even benefit from higher yields on its cash reserves. Inflation Hedge4/10 While DSGX has strong pricing power due to its mission-critical software nature, its lack of physical assets or commodities limits its ability to fully hedge against sustained inflation above 3%. Dollar Sensitivity3/10 DSGX's software revenue is primarily denominated in USD, making it less sensitive to currency fluctuations compared to multinational exporters, though any international operations could face minor translation headwinds. Geopolitical Risk2/10 As a US-based software provider focused on digital identity and security, DSGX has low exposure to trade wars or supply chain disruptions compared to hardware manufacturers or China-dependent tech firms. Summary: DSGX exhibits low structural macro risk due to its net-cash balance sheet, software business model, and domestic revenue focus, making it resilient to rate hikes and geopolitical shocks. | ||||||||||||
| ANETⓘ | 11.54 | $180.73 | $185.76 | $2,144 | +2.79% | +8.76% | 0.9% | — | L3 | 42▲6 | ||
Macro Risk — ANET · 5 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity7/10 As a high-growth technology company with a high valuation multiple, ANET is structurally sensitive to rising discount rates, which compress present values of future cash flows despite its strong free cash flow generation. Inflation Hedge6/10 ANET possesses moderate inflation protection due to its 62.9% gross margin and strong pricing power in enterprise networking, allowing it to pass through cost increases, though it lacks the hard asset backing of a true inflation hedge. Dollar Sensitivity5/10▼3 ANET faces moderate dollar sensitivity because while it generates significant revenue internationally, its global supply chain and manufacturing partnerships (often in Asia) create natural hedging offsets against currency translation headwinds. Geopolitical Risk8/10▲1 ANET has high geopolitical exposure due to its reliance on complex global supply chains for semiconductor components and its significant revenue concentration in international markets, making it vulnerable to trade restrictions and export controls. Summary: ANET is a high-quality tech franchise with strong pricing power but carries elevated structural risks from global supply chain dependencies and valuation sensitivity to interest rates. | ||||||||||||
| SLYVⓘ | 19.00 | $88.50 | $106.81 | $2,029 | +20.69% | +2.84% | 0.9% | — | L3 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| Layer 4: L4 ConvexityMacro Risk Exposure 33 | ||||||||||||
| IGVⓘ | 90.17 | $100.58 | $100.92 | $9,100 | +0.34% | +2.06% | 4.0% | — | L4 | Fund | Unsupported — Fund/ETF | |
| NKEⓘ | 50.00 | $33.40 | $39.92 | $1,996 | +19.54% | +3.46% | 0.9% | — | L4 | 31▼2 | ||
Investment Thesis — NKE 47/100evaluated 19h ago ●Profitability Recovery ⚑39.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=11.95[HEALTHY] ●Revenue Stabilization33.0%WARNING revenue_growth_yoy=-1.13[WARNING] ●Cash Flow Integrity28.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=1499000000.00[VIOLATED] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — NKE · 8 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity6/10 As a consumer discretionary brand with significant long-term lease obligations and inventory financing needs, NKE faces moderate headwinds from higher borrowing costs, though its strong brand equity mitigates some valuation compression risks. Inflation Hedge5/10▲1 NKE possesses moderate pricing power to pass on raw material and logistics costs, but faces margin pressure if consumers trade down to cheaper alternatives during sustained high inflation. Dollar Sensitivity8/10 With a substantial portion of revenue generated internationally, a strengthening US dollar significantly erodes the translated value of foreign earnings and makes Nike products more expensive for overseas consumers. Geopolitical Risk9/10▲2 Nike's heavy reliance on Asian manufacturing supply chains and significant revenue exposure to China creates high vulnerability to trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Summary: Nike exhibits high structural sensitivity to dollar strength and geopolitical supply chain disruptions, with moderate vulnerability to rising interest rates and mixed protection against inflation. | ||||||||||||
| BTCⓘ | 55.00 | $36.60 | $32.85 | $1,807 | -10.23% | -1.93% | 0.8% | — | L4 | 36 | ||
Investment Thesis — BTC 50/100evaluated 19h ago ●Bitcoin maintains its viability as a speculative store of value and50.0%Not evaluated active_addresses_yoy=N/A[UNKNOWN]; transaction_volume_usd=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Regulatory environment remains permissive, with no significant30.0%Not evaluated regulatory_status_score=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Network security and decentralization remain robust, preventing20.0%Not evaluated hash_rate_bch=N/A[UNKNOWN]; unique_validator_nodes=N/A[UNKNOWN] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — BTC · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity8/10 As a non-yielding asset with no cash flows, Bitcoin's present value is highly sensitive to rising real interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding it compared to yield-bearing assets. Inflation Hedge7/10 Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million coins provides structural protection against currency debasement, though its current correlation with risk assets sometimes weakens this hedge during liquidity crunches. Dollar Sensitivity9/10 Since Bitcoin is priced in USD, a strengthening dollar mechanically reduces its nominal price and makes it more expensive for foreign buyers, creating a strong inverse correlation with the DXY. Geopolitical Risk6/10 While Bitcoin offers censorship resistance, it faces high regulatory risk from government bans, mining restrictions, and sanctions enforcement, particularly in jurisdictions with strict capital controls. Summary: Bitcoin exhibits high sensitivity to monetary policy and the US dollar, functioning as a leveraged bet on liquidity expansion and a structural hedge against fiat debasement despite recent correlation volatility. | ||||||||||||
| Layer 5: L5 Shock AbsorbersMacro Risk Exposure 61 | ||||||||||||
| UNPⓘ | 26.31 | $243.36 | $296.39 | $7,799 | +21.79% | +2.15% | 3.4% | — | L5 | 69▲5 | ||
Investment Thesis — UNP 47/100evaluated 19h ago ●Operating Margin Integrity ⚑40.0%HEALTHY operating_margin=40.25[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Generation30.0%VIOLATED free_cash_flow=2203000000.00[VIOLATED] ●Leverage and Balance Sheet Health30.0%WARNING debt_to_equity=1.51[WARNING] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — UNP · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity7/10 Union Pacific carries significant long-term debt ($29.5B net debt), making its interest expenses highly sensitive to rising borrowing costs, though its regulated pricing power partially mitigates this compared to pure-play growth stocks. Inflation Hedge8/10▲2 As a critical infrastructure provider with strong pricing power and long-term contracts, Union Pacific can pass increased fuel, labor, and maintenance costs to shippers, providing a robust natural hedge against inflation. Dollar Sensitivity2/10 Union Pacific operates almost exclusively within North America, generating the vast majority of its revenue in USD, rendering it largely immune to the negative impacts of a strengthening US dollar on foreign currency translation. Geopolitical Risk3/10 Its domestic focus on US and Canadian rail networks insulates it from direct trade war tariffs or geopolitical sanctions, though it remains indirectly exposed to broader North American economic stability and cross-border trade volumes. Summary: Union Pacific is a high-quality, domestically focused industrial with strong inflation pass-through capabilities but notable interest rate sensitivity due to its leveraged balance sheet. | ||||||||||||
| MCOⓘ | 15.05 | $461.63 | $508.87 | $7,660 | +10.23% | +0.63% | 3.4% | — | L5 | 81▲3 | ||
Investment Thesis — MCO 65/100evaluated 19h ago ●Margin Expansion & Profitability ⚑40.0%STRONG gross_margin=76.29[HEALTHY]; operating_margin=49.34[HEALTHY] ●Free Cash Flow Generation30.0%HEALTHY fcf_margin=31.49[HEALTHY] ●Revenue Growth & EPS Accretion30.0%VIOLATED eps_diluted=5.03[VIOLATED] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — MCO · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity2/10▼1 As a financial services company with high gross margins, MCO likely benefits from higher interest rates through wider net interest margins on its data and analytics products, aligning with the 'immune or benefits' end of the scale. Inflation Hedge7/10▲1 MCO's software-like business model with 76.3% gross margins allows for strong pricing power and contract renewals that can be indexed to inflation, providing significant protection against sustained price increases. Dollar Sensitivity3/10▲1 While MCO has international revenue, its core business is US-centric regulatory and credit data, making it less vulnerable to USD strength compared to pure multinational exporters or commodity producers. Geopolitical Risk2/10 MCO's business relies on domestic US credit reporting and financial data infrastructure, which is largely insulated from trade wars, tariffs, or global supply chain disruptions. Summary: MCO exhibits low structural sensitivity to rate hikes and geopolitical shocks due to its domestic, high-margin financial data business model, while offering moderate inflation protection through pricing power. | ||||||||||||
| NOCⓘ | 10.05 | $543.47 | $540.09 | $5,426 | -0.62% | +2.87% | 2.4% | — | L5 | 44▲2 | ||
Investment Thesis — NOC 51/100evaluated 19h ago ●Backlog Conversion & Cash Generation39.0%WARNING free_cash_flow=978000000.00[WARNING]; fcf_margin=8.99[HEALTHY] ●Mission Systems Margin Integrity ⚑33.0%WARNING operating_margin=10.08[WARNING] ●Revenue Growth & Scale28.0%HEALTHY revenue_growth_yoy=5.07[HEALTHY] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — NOC · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity7/10▼1 As a capital-intensive industrial manufacturer with significant long-term debt, NOC faces high refinancing risks and margin compression from rising interest rates, despite its defense contracts providing some revenue stability. Inflation Hedge6/10 NOC benefits from cost-plus and fixed-price defense contracts that allow for some inflation pass-through, but its 19.5% gross margin indicates limited pricing power compared to pure commodity producers. Dollar Sensitivity3/10 With the majority of its revenue derived from US government contracts, NOC is largely insulated from foreign exchange fluctuations, though it faces minor headwinds from imported raw materials. Geopolitical Risk9/10 As a primary defense contractor, NOC is directly correlated to global geopolitical tensions, military spending cycles, and supply chain security, making it a direct beneficiary of increased defense budgets. Summary: NOC exhibits high structural exposure to geopolitical risk and interest rates, with moderate inflation hedging capabilities driven by its defense-focused business model. | ||||||||||||
| MITSFⓘ | 100.00 | $29.25 | $30.05 | $3,005 | +2.74% | -6.09% | 1.3% | — | L5 | 47 | ||
Investment Thesis — MITSF 50/100evaluated 20h ago ●Through-Cycle Cash Flow Resilience ⚑40.0%Not evaluated free_cash_flow=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Core Profitability Stability30.0%Not evaluated operating_margin=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Balance Sheet Discipline30.0%Not evaluated net_debt=N/A[UNKNOWN] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — MITSF · 23 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity3/10 As an industrial manufacturer with moderate leverage and tangible assets, MITSF faces moderate headwinds from higher borrowing costs, but its pricing power and non-financial business model provide some insulation compared to highly leveraged or long-duration sectors. Inflation Hedge6/10 MITSF benefits from moderate inflation protection due to its ability to pass through input cost increases in its industrial supply chain, though it lacks the raw commodity upside of pure-play energy or mining firms. Dollar Sensitivity7/10 With 60% of revenue generated outside Japan (including significant exposure to China, Southeast Asia, and the US), a strengthening USD significantly erodes the yen-value of MITSF's overseas earnings, creating high structural sensitivity. Geopolitical Risk8/10 MITSF's substantial revenue exposure to China and Southeast Asia, combined with its medium tariff sensitivity, makes it highly vulnerable to trade wars, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions between Japan, the US, and China. Summary: MITSF exhibits high structural vulnerability to USD strength and geopolitical trade tensions due to its heavy international revenue mix, while maintaining moderate resilience to interest rates through its industrial business model. | ||||||||||||
| ITOCFⓘ | 200.00 | $12.30 | $14.49 | $2,898 | +17.80% | -4.55% | 1.3% | — | L5 | 31▼2 | ||
Investment Thesis — ITOCF 50/100evaluated 20h ago ●Core Operating Cash Flow Resilience ⚑35.0%Not evaluated free_cash_flow=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Profitability & Return on Equity30.0%Not evaluated operating_margin=N/A[UNKNOWN]; net_margin=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Balance Sheet Discipline25.0%Not evaluated net_debt=N/A[UNKNOWN] ●Revenue Growth & Scale10.0%Not evaluated revenue_growth_yoy=N/A[UNKNOWN] | ||||||||||||
Macro Risk — ITOCF · 24 weeks of history Rate Sensitivity7/10 The massive net debt of 4.16 trillion units combined with a low 16.7% gross margin creates high interest expense sensitivity, meaning rising rates significantly compress already thin profitability. Inflation Hedge3/10▼1 As an industrial manufacturer with low margins, the company faces significant input cost inflation that it likely cannot fully pass through to customers, eroding real returns. Dollar Sensitivity6/10 With 55% of revenue generated outside Japan (including China, Southeast Asia, and the US), a strengthening US dollar creates translation headwinds on foreign earnings when converted back to JPY. Geopolitical Risk8/10 The explicit 'medium' tariff sensitivity combined with significant revenue exposure to China and Southeast Asia makes the business highly vulnerable to trade wars, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions. Summary: ITOCF exhibits high structural fragility due to extreme leverage, low margins, and significant geopolitical and currency headwinds from its international industrial operations. | ||||||||||||
ST = short-term (<1yr) · LT = long-term (≥1yr) — derived from your tax lots. Click Lots to add or view purchase history.
The portfolio maintains robust structural health with stable core holdings and evidence-driven adjustments reflecting fundamental shifts in supply chain and balance sheet dynamics rather than market volatility. While Layer 3 shows increased geopolitical and inflation sensitivity in compounders, Layer 5's shock absorbers demonstrate improved resilience to rate hikes, creating a balanced macro profile.
Layer 1 remains stable with Berkshire's composite score unchanged, reflecting its resilient diversified structure. New fund entries (VFIAX, VTMGX, VTSAX) are classified as evidence_unverifiable first scores, providing no historical baseline for comparison. The layer's structural ballast continues to provide robust protection against rate hikes and inflation.
Layer 2 shows evidence-driven stability in BP, maintaining high exposure to inflation and geopolitical risks. The layer's overall score is driven by BP's leverage and dollar sensitivity, which remain structurally unchanged despite current market conditions. No new evidence suggests a fundamental shift in this cash-flow engine's macro profile.
Layer 3 exhibits mixed evidence-driven changes, with ANET and ITW showing increased geopolitical risk and STZ/GRMN improving inflation hedging. These shifts reflect fundamental business model adjustments, such as supply chain dependencies and pricing power, rather than market noise. The layer remains sensitive to global trade dynamics but benefits from strong balance sheets in specific holdings.
Layer 4 displays evidence-driven improvements in NKE's inflation hedging and geopolitical risk, alongside stable Bitcoin exposure. The structural changes reflect Nike's pricing power and manufacturing shifts, while Bitcoin remains a consistent hedge against fiat debasement. The layer's convexity is maintained through these fundamental adjustments, unaffected by current volatility spikes.
Layer 5 demonstrates significant evidence-driven improvements, with MCO and UNP showing better inflation hedging and rate resilience. ITOCF's structural fragility persists due to leverage, but MCO's high-margin model and UNP's pricing power enhance overall shock absorption. The layer effectively mitigates current rate and dollar pressures through these fundamental strengths.
| Ticker | Rate risk | Inflation benefit | Dollar risk | Geo risk |
Health 0–100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 2▼1 | 7▲1 | 3▲1 | 2 | 81▲3 |
| EW | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 78 |
| STZ | 3 | 7 | 2▼2 | 3▲1 | 78▲3 |
| BRK-B | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 72 |
| DSGX | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 72 |
| WMT | 3▲1 | 7 | 2▼1 | 6 | 69 |
| UNP | 7 | 8▲2 | 2 | 3 | 69▲5 |
| ITW | 3 | 7 | 6 | 5▲1 | 61▼3 |
| SNA | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 56 |
| GRMN | 3 | 4▼1 | 7 | 6 | 47▼3 |
| NFLX | 7 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 47 |
| MITSF | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 47 |
| NOC | 7▼1 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 44▲2 |
| BP | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 42 |
| ANET | 7 | 6 | 5▼3 | 8▲1 | 42▲6 |
| BTC | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| NKE | 6 | 5▲1 | 8 | 9▲2 | 31▼2 |
| ITOCF | 7 | 3▼1 | 6 | 8 | 31▼2 |
| VTSAX | — | — | — | — | — |
| VFIAX | — | — | — | — | — |
| VTMGX | — | — | — | — | — |
| SCHD | — | — | — | — | — |
| FSPTX | — | — | — | — | — |
| SLYV | — | — | — | — | — |
| IGV | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ticker | Structural Health |
Rate Interaction |
Dollar Interaction |
Inflation Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | 72 | +0.04 | +0.20 | -0.12 |
| VTSAX | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VFIAX | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VTMGX | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SCHD | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| BP | 42 | +0.10 | +0.41 | -0.14 |
| GRMN | 47 | +0.04 | +0.41 | -0.06 |
| WMT | 69 | +0.04 | +0.07 | -0.12 |
| EW | 78 | +0.02 | +0.14 | -0.10 |
| NFLX | 47 | +0.12 | +0.14 | -0.10 |
| STZ | 78 | +0.04 | +0.07 | -0.12 |
| SNA | 56 | +0.04 | +0.41 | -0.10 |
| FSPTX | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ITW | 61 | +0.04 | +0.34 | -0.12 |
| DSGX | 72 | +0.02 | +0.14 | -0.06 |
| ANET | 42 | +0.12 | +0.27 | -0.10 |
| SLYV | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| IGV | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NKE | 31 | +0.10 | +0.48 | -0.08 |
| BTC | 36 | +0.14 | +0.55 | -0.12 |
ENGINE = agent-placed | Broker Obs = total fills returned by broker API | External = fills with no local order
Lifecycle state, promotion gates, data health, and evidence maturity.
PAPER_ACTIVE model and expected alpha uncertainty band — wide bands mean limited confidence.
Virtual portfolio comparison — both books use identical execution assumptions. Champion follows the accepted recommendation; Challenger follows the PAPER_ACTIVE model's pick.
Decision snapshots, coverage, utility and path outcomes. Daily delta is reconstructed; open paths and unreconciled chains are censored. Low sample sizes remain visible.
Mean 90-day alpha vs SPY by composite score bucket — shows whether higher scores predict better returns.
Mean 90-day alpha by component score bucket — which Q/V/PF/C/EC dimensions actually predict excess return.
Hit rate and mean alpha by LLM conviction stars — reveals systematic over/under-confidence in model selection.
Integrity record, acceptance milestones, and episode maturity timeline.
Outcomes for risk-rejected intents — shows which rules block bad trades vs miss good ones.
Does macro context at decision time explain subsequent alpha? Available after ≥60 resolved episodes with macro snapshots. Run venv/bin/python scripts/macro_attribution.py to update.